Survivor has been around for a long time — from a television perspective anyway — over ten years and twenty-five seasons. It rose to fame as one of the first “good” reality game shows that many people watched and even won a few awards. There have been good seasons (Samoa), bad seasons (Gabon), and great seasons (Heroes vs Villains). I’ve seen most of them, although I didn’t watch much between seasons three and twelve because season three was so boring. But after thirteen, I haven’t missed an episode. So that makes me a “sort of expert.”

So why has this season been so phenomenal?

Archetypes That Want to Win

The typical winning strategy for most winners seems to be:

1) Survive any way you can until the merge
2) Maintain majority, backstab, or luck your way until the finals
3) Win/find as many immunities as possible
4) Bring terrible players with you to the end

That last one’s harder than it seems, especially in a season like this one, filled with both unstable presences and actual lovers of the game. The former are ruled by emotions and could vote arbitrarily, while the latter tend to be more likely to vote for actual good gameplay. And gameplay becomes more convoluted and interesting when the dynamics are interesting…

Three Tribes Actually Works

There haven’t been three tribes since Survivor: All-Stars, which I’ve been meaning to watch, but by all accounts that too was a great season. It really works better than the more common two tribes of eight to ten people, because all the combinations are basically played out by this point. There were two seasons with four tribes, but neither worked that well — in the Cook Islands season, tribes were split along racial lines which was questionable at best, and momentum decimated three out of four of the tribes. They never tried that again.

Redemptive Arcs

This is a combination of luck and casting — you can’t predict how well people will do at challenges really. Different seasons of Survivor tell different stories; last season was the utter domination by Kim, while Samoa was about how not to win the game (because Russell Hantz was hated so much). But it’s almost shocking that the five out of six of the remaining players this season have had an actual story on this season that makes you interested in how it ends.

Abi-Maria (or Chaotic Player Ruled by Emotions) has made people very mad and could never win, but she really wants to — and to prove to those who have attacked her that she won’t be crushed. In the most recent episode, Abi managed to do some interesting strategical moves and stayed in the game when everyone wanted her gone. She’s already proved herself in some ways — but what’s next?

Carter (or Athletic Mute) has said nothing of importance, for the most part — so his main story is “what’s next for this guy?”

Denise (or Older Lady who Over-analyzes a Bit Too Much) survived the death of her tribe with Malcolm, so they both have that arc of redemption. But Denise is also a smart, canny played who may be a bit too trusting. That may be her downfall.

Lisa (or Conflicted Between Desire to Win and Desire to Please) started a pariah in her own tribe, but now basically is choosing who goes home and who stays. But she can’t take that responsibility, or so it seems. Can she overcome herself?

Malcolm (or Subtle, perhaps Too Subtle) began by seeming to be a highly impressive player who then made a stupid mistake by cuddling with Angie. But he recovered from that and stepped out of the wreck of his former tribe with Denise, whom he’s closely allied with and yet worried about. Malcolm seems to be thinking more about the endgame than anyone else, but he hasn’t played many “big moves.” So will he? If he doesn’t, can he win over the jury?

Mike (or Returnee with Something to Prove) was medically evacuated in season two and was quite injury prone this season too. He’s been working the game from below, managing to stay afloat despite a lot of people trying to vote him out. Can Mike overcome his own limitations and other people’s frustration to win the game?

Hard to say. This game might end up with a winner everyone hates, but that seems unlikely at this point. Right now, only Carter would be the boring choice to win. And five out of six chances for a great ending are excellent odds for a great season.

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It’s hard to believe that the 25th edition of Survivor started this week. That’s a long run for any series — and remember, this translates to 12 years — particularly a reality competition show, and while the ratings aren’t what they were back in the day, the show still dominates its time period (it actually beat Fox’s The X Factor in its premiere outing, which must cause that network some concern).

While I’m still a fan of the show, and haven’t missed a season since its debut in the summer of 2000 (and I don’t know why CBS just doesn’t play Survivor in one half of the season and The Amazing Race in the other instead of rushing two back-to-back seasons into production, thus diminishing the quality of the shows and the people selected to play), it’s been quite obvious for several years now that they’ve really run out of ideas and have had to resort to stunt casting, recycled challenges, over-the-top (i.e. crazy) people, and creative editing to make something exciting out of the season. That even extends to the “On the next episode of Survivor” previews — remember the “Hurricane Na’Onka” teaser that promised a total meltdown and it was nothing more than her being mildly irritated? It’s this kind of thing that has taken the shine off of what can be an interesting show, but the obvious editing choices at times (storylines are created and then dropped, or some decision comes out of the blue because we’ve not been allowed to see the important moments that led up to that … at least with Big Brother, you have 24-hour access via the live stream, so you know what’s happening even when the TV edit doesn’t quite mesh with those events), and the fact that the producers, including Jeff Probst, now have to rely on returning players each season, just shows that maybe it’s time for them to take a little breather, a short hiatus, and then come back with a stronger format that gives us a game with people who really want to play (not cast for their looks and personality), and not those who have already played. Like this season’s three returning players.

Everyone selected for Survivor: Philippines should have known something was up when they were broken into three tribes of five each. Just like with this year’s Big Brother, anyone with a basic grasp of simple math would know that 15 people are not enough to take them through the 39 days of the show. But they still were shocked, upset, and/or surprised when three past players returned to the game to join each tribe. The returnees, Russell Swan, Michael Skupin and Jonathan Penner, have all played the game but are really more famous among the fans for being airlifted off the show due to an injury. Russell nearly died in front of Jeff Probst during a challenge, Penner developed a life-threatening infection after he gashed his leg, and Skupin famously fainted into the camp fire after inhaling some smoke, burning the skin off of his hands (and I can’t believe that was all the way back in season two). I’m okay with bringing two of the three back because they — Swan and Skupin — only played the game once. This is Penner’s third time, so to say he’s getting a second chance is a bit of a stretch. (But at least they had the good sense not to bring back the dreadful Colton.) So now that the formerly injured players are getting another chance, what are their chances of staying in the game longer than Russell Hantz did the last time he played the game? And have they learned anything from watching the show in the meantime?

Their fates certainly depend on their behavior with their respective tribes, and in how resentful the tribes are to have a former player with them. Do they want to give someone who knows the game another chance to win? Granted, none of these guys are Rob Mariano, none of them have ever come close to winning in the past, so even though they’ve played the game, they’re still not what you would consider an “all-star.” I think the person with the best chance of staying in the game the longest is Skupin. His tribe welcomed him with open arms, and they seem to be in awe of him because of his injury. Everyone wanted to see his hands as soon as they met him, and they just seemed honored to be in his presence. Skupin also has a genial, down-to-earth personality that will allow him to play a great social game, so as long as he doesn’t get too bossy around camp and can contribute to winning challenges, he should make it to the merge. (And let’s not kid ourselves … these three tribes will become two or one before you know it. These “experiments” never seem to last more than three episodes.)

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