Dollhouse premiere ratings – Place your bets

I imagine that the big event for the average TV viewer this week was probably the premiere of Survivor, or maybe the kickoff to the NASCAR season, if you swing that way (CliqueClack doesn’t judge). But if you are taking time out of your day to visit us here at CliqueClack, you’re no average viewer. You are one of those internet people. And if we know one thing about internet people, they love them some Joss Whedon. So, for our purposes here, the big event of the week is most definitely the premiere of Dollhouse.

The show hasn’t even launched yet, but it’s already such an interesting story: re-tooled pilot, script issues, naked Eliza Dushku promo pics, production shutdown, Grindhouse trailer, moved from Monday to Friday, and from being paired with 24 to being paired with Terminator:TSCC. Early reviews are all over the map, and Whedon’s history with Fox just adds fuel to the fire. What will it all mean when the ratings come in? With all that in mind, a poll seems to be in order.

Before we get to that poll, let’s look at some numbers to get an idea of just what we’re dealing with. Heading into the premiere, CBS owns Friday night. While the other networks struggle to find something that will stick, Ghost Whisperer and Numb3rs just keep winning week after week. Recently they’ve been joined by Flashpoint, which seems to fill that 9PM slot very nicely. It also sets the bar for Dollhouse.

Over the last month or so, Flashpoint has been coming in at just over 10 million viewers with a demo number averaging around 2.3. Those are the goals. If Dollhouse could manage to top both of those, and win the time slot, it would be time to celebrate. At the other end of the scale is Friday Night Lights. The DirecTV experiment seems to have gone bust, and the show is stumbling along at just over 4 million viewers with an average demo of around 1.4. If Dollhouse falls below that, we can all pack it in and call it a day.

So, where will the numbers land? Where viewers are concerned, I’m going with somewhere in the middle. More than 10 million viewers seems awfully optimistic, especially given the Terminator lead in. That show has spent the whole season on Mondays averaging just over 5 million viewers. It may pick up some viewers with the lessened competition of Friday, but Dollhouse isn’t going to be handed a huge audience to jump start things. That’s Fringe’s gig. My best guess is high 7, low 8 millions.

That’s not a jump up and down number, but not the end of the world either. The more important bit to watch will be the demo, because that is where Dollhouse really has a chance against Flashpoint. 10 million viewers sounds optimistic, but a 2.3 demo sounds reasonable. Look to the latest numbers of Heroes for inspiration. Despite viewer numbers that have now fallen below 8 million, the show is still over a 3 in the demo. Don’t you think the general makeup of the Dollhouse audience should have a thing or two in common with Heroes? So, if the show could manage 7 or 8 million viewers, it could win the night in the demo, and that would go a long, long way.

I’m going with right around 8 million / 2.5. What do you think? (And with the 24 on Sunday)

Update: The numbers are in and they’re not good. Dollhouse ended up third in viewers, with just under 5 million, and second in the demo, with a 2.0.

Clacked by Brett Love
on Feb 13, 2009 @ 08:00 EST5EDT