Fall 2009 pre-season predictions: Wednesday

Wednesday is what I would call the night of opportunities. Ten of the sixteen shows are new, and many of those are dropping into slots that, to be kind, don’t have the highest of expectations. Even better, if you need to make your bones on Wednesday, two of the shows that actually were successful on the night last fall have picked up and headed for Thursday (Bones, Private Practice). It’s about as much as a new show could ask for. Our big questions: Is it scheduling that picks a winner between NBC’s Mercy and Trauma? Is Glee the real deal, or just so much hype? And can ABC finally launch an actual hit sit-com? The short version – Yes, Mercy – real deal – eh, kind of. The more long-winded response, is after the jump.

Man, 8:00 is a real crap shoot. ABC, NBC, and FOX are all new. And Christine & Gary are not what you would call threatening programming from CBS. It makes the winners very hard to call. Starting at the top, I’m picking a split in the viewers and demo. I think the weakened competition is going to give Mercy a leg up over NBC’s other new medical show, Trauma. Of course, that doesn’t guarantee anything. Reactions to the pilot have been mixed, so much will depend on how quickly the show can find its footing. To start though, it has a real opportunity and I would look for it to be the most watched show in the hour. The demo, on the other hand, should go to So You Think You Can Dance, which is getting about the best situation the show could have asked for in its initial fall run.

In the battle of the comedies, it looks to be a fight to the middle. Viewers had an entire season of opportunities to tune in to Old Christine and Gary Unmarried on CBS, and it really never caught on. The shows were very consistent, but consistent at that barely got renewed level. Has anything really changed? I don’t think so. Getting back to my worries with the moves on Monday night, I would have preferred to see Gary Unmarried go to the post-Men slot, keeping the successful pairing of Big Bang/HIMYM from 8 to 9. Then, Accidentally On Purpose could have been paired with Old Christine. It would have at least offered a different look.

Over at ABC … what can you say … it’s ABC and comedy. There’s an old adage in gambling that you never bet against a streak. And ABC’s streak with comedies is a disastrous one. You could argue that Samantha Who? found some success, but I contend that show was only ever really successful when Tom and Samantha dropped off 20 million viewers on its doorstep. I’m not ready to bet against that streak. Certainly not when Hank and The Middle are the options. Kelsey Grammer and Patricia Heaton weren’t enough of a draw when they were on a show together, so I don’t expect their star power to be enough to carry an hour of shows when they’re apart.

This is also the one place where you really can’t ignore the CW. Next Top Model should again be the number one show on the network. As we saw last season, the show is still more than capable of making some noise, and damaging some egos, in the demo department. It will finish fifth in viewers consistently, but don’t be surprised if it starts picking off big network comedies in the demo.

Things are a little different at 9:00, at least for now.  Lost and Idol are on the sidelines until the new year, but we still have a real ratings battle to watch between Criminal Minds and Law & Order: SVU. Going off of last season’s numbers, Criminal Minds has the edge, but the competition should really tighten up with SVU making the move to 9:00. When everything is averaged out, I expect Criminal Minds to take the lead in viewers, with SVU coming out on top with the demo, but it will be close. Likely, the two will trade off victories based on guest stars and high profile stories throughout the fall.

The battle for third will be waged between Glee and two more ABC comedies, Modern Family and Cougar Town. I’m giving the edge to Glee. The show has that special something that is going to inspire loyal viewing. The “Gleeks” are the real deal. I’d even go so far as to say that over time, it could develop into a full fledged hit.  Modern Family and Cougar Town have both been much more well received than Hank and The Middle, but this is not the stuff that hit comedies are made of. Look for them to do better numbers than Hank and The Middle, but ultimately land in fourth place against some stiff competition. Given that recent history of ABC comedy though, that may be enough to keep them around. Rounding out the hour, The Beautiful Life doesn’t have much hope for more than a fifth place finish, but the show should do well by CW standards. After a year of wasting the Next Top Model lead-in on Stylista and way too many 90210 repeats, the network finally has something that could work in the spot.

Finally, at 10:00, it’s another easy victory for CBS crimetime. With NBC taking SVU out of the picture, the CSI:NY numbers should even grow. Eastwick, on the other hand, is a bit of a mystery. It has been tried twice already, with nothing to show for it. Is the third time the charm? I don’t think so. For a network that is coming off the failures of Pushing Daisies and Eli Stone, this all feels a little too quirky to me. And, to be honest, I question the casting of Rebecca Romijn and Lindsay Price in the leads.  I’m curious to see it, but expecting an unfortunately close battle with Leno for second place at 10:00.

Clacked by Brett Love
on Sep 02, 2009 @ 09:00 EST5EDT